Will Scotland finally end the New Zealand curse?
Autumn Nations Series: Scotland v New Zealand
Venue: Murrayfield Stadium, Edinburgh Date: this weekend Time: 3:10 PM GMT
Things were simpler then. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, winter of 1964. Euphoria at full-time. Fans flooding the field to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.
Having beaten three home nations, the All Blacks had finally been halted in a Test.
A contemporary reporter almost blew a gasket. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."
Leaving the stadium that evening, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but clear signs that success might be imminent.
A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Another three years passed, identical outcome. Five more years went by and, yes, you know the rest.
Recent History
Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. Across New Zealand and beyond, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - locations have varied but results remain consistent.
During his tenure, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses.
Team News
Over the past seasons the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to closer margins in recent encounters, but New Zealand consistently prevail.
Through their brilliance, their power, game management, they secure victory.
We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that some may have held for Scottish success is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.
Missing Players
Thursday brought news that Fagerson was unavailable. For Scotland's hopes it was like a kick in the guts.
Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's a freak and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying.
During modern rugby early in matches, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations.
Replacement Concerns
They're without Huw Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his Test career consists of limited game time.
And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. While competent, there's little to suggest that he can match New Zealand's standard.
Coaching Choices
The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some curious. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.
The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.
Historical Context
Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the opening match of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory.
Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.
By the Numbers
Despite late-game surges, the last 20 minutes is not where New Zealand typically dominates. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've accumulated scores in the first half and 60 in the second half.
Strong opening performances, excellent second quarters, 26 in the third and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps.
What Scotland Needs
Against Scotland in 2022, they struck twice in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to hit them with 23 unanswered points.
The clear message is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from kickoff - maintaining intensity.
Over the last decade, successful opponents have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scotland have got into the 20s only occasionally against the All Blacks.
Final Analysis
Perfect execution is required for Scotland. Everything. Wasted opportunities then forget it. A yellow card? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? It's over.
But what if everything does go right? Explosive start. Vocal support. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance.
Fantasy rugby, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If the capability exists, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.