Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
