Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got something to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
